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Species · Florida · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Florida Scrub-Jay Population Trend in Florida

All statesForest birds

Florida Scrub-Jay in Florida has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-74%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Florida Scrub-Jay Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Florida Scrub-Jay has fallen sharply in Florida: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Florida Scrub-Jay Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Florida Scrub-Jay in Florida is projected to fall about 55% by 2030 — from 0.21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±113.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-55%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±113.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Florida Scrub-Jay in Florida is projected to fall about 55% by 2030 — from 0.21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±113.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.130.000.53
20270.120.000.52
20280.120.000.51
20290.100.000.50
20300.100.000.49

Florida Scrub-Jay Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Florida Scrub-Jay in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ocala920251989
Arbuckle420191987
Childs420221966
Salvista319771967
Aripeka319951995
Palmdale220231987
Merritt Isl220061992
Ridge Harbor220251991
Mabel220031967
Boca Raton119731968
Sebastian119891989
Webb120032002
Miller Xrds119971997
Scottsmoor120251969
Alva120151987
Ft Lonesome120041972
Merritt Island 2120142014
Kenansville119921982

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.