BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-crowned Pigeon Population Trend in Florida

All statesGeneralists

White-crowned Pigeon in Florida has collapsed: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-75%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-crowned Pigeon Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-crowned Pigeon has collapsed in Florida: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

White-crowned Pigeon Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, White-crowned Pigeon in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.27 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1630.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.27Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1630.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-crowned Pigeon in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.27 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1630.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.340.002.1
20260.320.002.1
20270.300.002.1
20280.280.002.1
20290.270.002.1

White-crowned Pigeon Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording White-crowned Pigeon in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sugarloaf Key9220041999
Key Largo7019911987
Key West3019871987
Plantation K2520041966
Sugarloaf Key 21620212005
Card Sound920211998
Homestead319881988
Flamingo120241983
Weaver Stn120102010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.