BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Smooth-billed Ani Population Trend in Florida

All statesGeneralists

Smooth-billed Ani in Florida has collapsed: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-94%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
26YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Smooth-billed Ani Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Smooth-billed Ani has collapsed in Florida: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Smooth-billed Ani Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Smooth-billed Ani in Florida is projected to fall about 100% by 2020 — from 0.06 in 2015 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±586.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2020TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2020 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±586.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Smooth-billed Ani in Florida is projected to fall about 100% by 2020 — from 0.06 in 2015 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±586.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672020
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20160.000.000.31
20170.000.000.31
20180.000.000.31
20190.000.000.31
20200.000.000.31

Smooth-billed Ani Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Smooth-billed Ani in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Broward819731967
Andytown719891975
Homestead420151988
Davie219941988
Corbett219871987
Holey Land219991987
Plantation K119801970
Boca Raton119901968
Shawano120001987
Shawano 2120042004
Scottsmoor119721972
Indiantown120001975

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.