BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lesser Goldfinch

FringillidaeForest birdsSpinus psaltria

Lesser Goldfinch has surged: up 191% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+191%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
689RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Lesser Goldfinch

The Lesser Goldfinch (Spinus psaltria) is a North American member of the Finches (Fringillidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
4.5–6.5 in long (11–16 cm) — a small songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 689 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 11 states, most concentrated in the Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Family
Fringillidae · Forest birds

Notable Lesser Goldfinch TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lesser Goldfinch has surged in surveyed states: up 191% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Lesser Goldfinch Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Goldfinch is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.61 (95% range 0.28–0.95). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.61Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.28–0.9595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lesser Goldfinch is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.61 (95% range 0.28–0.95). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.610.280.95
20260.610.280.95
20270.610.280.95
20280.610.280.95
20290.610.280.95

Where the Lesser Goldfinch Is Detected

BBS routes recording Lesser Goldfinch, sized by most recent count.

Lesser Goldfinch Population Trend by State

Lesser Goldfinch population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Arizona+130%197059
California+38%1970228
Colorado+313%197279
Idaho+105%20077
Nevada+755%198815
New Mexico-10%197076
Oregon-43%197145
Texas-2%1969114
Utah+89%198751
Washingtoninsufficient datan/a4
Wyominginsufficient datan/a11

Lesser Goldfinch Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Lesser Goldfinch population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Northern Pacific Rainforest-57%197058
Great Basin+479%197072
Northern Rockies+395%200511
Sierra Nevada-12%197133
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau+211%1970147
Shortgrass Prairie+14%197340
Central Mixed Grass Prairie-27%196910
Edwards Plateau+10%196919
Oaks and Prairies-51%196918
Coastal California+75%1970116
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts+87%197049
Sierra Madre Occidental+52%197035
Chihuahuan Desert-75%197050
Tamaulipan Brushlands+187%197021
Gulf Coastal Prairie+233%19976

Lesser Goldfinch Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 190% since 1969.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.