BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lesser Goldfinch Population Trend in Oregon

All statesForest birds

Lesser Goldfinch in Oregon has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-36%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lesser Goldfinch Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lesser Goldfinch in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Lesser Goldfinch Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Goldfinch in Oregon is projected to fall about 56% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.61 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-56%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.61Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±70.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lesser Goldfinch in Oregon is projected to fall about 56% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.61 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.660.001.7
20270.650.001.7
20280.630.001.7
20290.620.001.7
20300.610.001.7

Lesser Goldfinch Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Lesser Goldfinch in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tualatin2720251972
Dayton1620252009
Green1120251994
Deschutes1020252014
Umpqua1020251970
Emigrant Lake 2920252002
Modoc Point820181975
Salem820251994
Monument820252024
Wedderburn720181970
Garfield720252011
Emigrant Lk720011972
Derby619931968
Twickenham620242011
Coquille520252013
Modoc Point 2420252024
Madras420252005
Santiam320242011
Adair320252012
Hazel Camp320221976
Ruch320251992
Sisters320252023
Sams Valley320251994
Scappoose220252021
Days Creek220211970

Lesser Goldfinch Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.