BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lesser Goldfinch Population Trend in Oregon

All statesGeneralists

Lesser Goldfinch in Oregon has declined: down 43% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-43%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lesser Goldfinch Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lesser Goldfinch in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Lesser Goldfinch Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Goldfinch in Oregon is projected to fall about 61% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-61%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.56Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±71.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lesser Goldfinch in Oregon is projected to fall about 61% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.610.001.7
20260.600.001.7
20270.590.001.7
20280.570.001.7
20290.560.001.6

Lesser Goldfinch Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Lesser Goldfinch in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tualatin5120241972
Garfield2620232011
Emigrant Lake 21220242002
Salem920241994
Deschutes820242014
Modoc Point820181975
Wedderburn720181970
Dayton720222009
Secret Val720221975
Emigrant Lk720011972
Green720241994
Ruch720231992
Derby619931968
Twickenham620242011
Modoc Point 2520242024
Monument520242024
Scappoose420232021
Canby420241993
Sams Valley420241994
Santiam320242011
Adair320242012
Hazel Camp320221976
Madras320242005
Coquille320242013
Umpqua220241970

Lesser Goldfinch Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.