BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lesser Goldfinch Population Trend in Utah

All statesGeneralists

Lesser Goldfinch in Utah has surged: up 89% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

+89%Since 1987TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lesser Goldfinch Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lesser Goldfinch has surged in Utah: up 89% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

Lesser Goldfinch Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Goldfinch in Utah is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 0.54 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.10–0.83). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.47Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–0.8395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lesser Goldfinch in Utah is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 0.54 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.10–0.83). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.440.070.81
20260.450.080.82
20270.450.090.82
20280.460.090.83
20290.470.100.83

Lesser Goldfinch Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Lesser Goldfinch in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Newcastle1520221997
Shivwitz820241993
Kamas620242013
Dixie Nf520161993
Iron Springs420181989
Alton 2420242021
Moab420221987
Aneth320242004
Soapstone320222016
La Sal319981998
Pine Creek320232010
Hardware Ranch320232023
La Sal 3320242010
Moon Lake 2220222013
Book Ridge220162016
Woodruff220232023
Navajo Lake220061996
Lynn220112011
Vernon220192016
Lake Powell220092005
Hatch220241994
Grantsville220192008
Ferron220002000
Alton220191998
Ant Flat-Ogden Can220212021

Lesser Goldfinch Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahonevadanew-mexicooregontexaswashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.