BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lesser Goldfinch Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Lesser Goldfinch in Texas has edged down: down 24% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-24%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
117Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lesser Goldfinch Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lesser Goldfinch in Texas. See the full index history below.

Lesser Goldfinch Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Goldfinch in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.0 (95% range 0.24–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.24–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lesser Goldfinch in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.0 (95% range 0.24–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.00.231.8
20271.00.231.8
20281.00.241.8
20291.00.241.8
20301.00.241.9

Lesser Goldfinch Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Lesser Goldfinch in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dripping Spg3820251987
Loyola Beach3220091995
Utopia2020251969
Pidcoke 21820252018
Boerne1720251967
San Pedro1420231996
Salt Flat1120152003
Eldorado1020231976
Ozona820121976
Frankel City720212003
Georgetown619771967
Manor 2620252025
Leakey520251994
Montell520251995
Prairie Mtn.520231994
Allen Creek520251994
Mirando City420141973
San Saba420251969
Pear Valley420231969
Shafter419801980
Presidio420222006
Kingsville320021988
Hondo320251970
Harper320251969
Black Gap320251988

Lesser Goldfinch Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.