BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lesser Goldfinch Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Lesser Goldfinch in Texas has held roughly steady: down 2% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-2%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
114Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lesser Goldfinch Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lesser Goldfinch in Texas. See the full index history below.

Lesser Goldfinch Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Goldfinch in Texas is projected to rise about 65% by 2029 — from 0.64 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.24–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+65%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.24–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lesser Goldfinch in Texas is projected to rise about 65% by 2029 — from 0.64 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.24–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.00.231.8
20261.00.231.9
20271.00.231.9
20281.00.231.9
20291.00.241.9

Lesser Goldfinch Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Lesser Goldfinch in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Loyola Beach3220091995
Dripping Spg2220241987
Utopia1520241969
Leakey1420241994
San Pedro1420231996
Hondo1120241970
Salt Flat1120152003
Eldorado1020231976
Ozona820121976
San Saba720241969
Frankel City720212003
Georgetown619771967
Rachal520231967
Osage520212013
Raymondville520241995
Prairie Mtn.520231994
Mirando City420141973
George West420232001
Boerne420241967
Pear Valley420231969
Shafter419801980
Presidio420222006
Toyahvale420181996
Kingsville320021988
Mertzon320111967

Lesser Goldfinch Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.