BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lesser Goldfinch Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGeneralists

Lesser Goldfinch in New Mexico has edged down: down 10% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-10%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lesser Goldfinch Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lesser Goldfinch in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Lesser Goldfinch Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Goldfinch in New Mexico is projected to rise about 56% by 2029 — from 0.80 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.43–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+56%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.43–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±71.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lesser Goldfinch in New Mexico is projected to rise about 56% by 2029 — from 0.80 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.43–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.422.1
20261.30.432.1
20271.30.432.1
20281.30.432.1
20291.30.432.1

Lesser Goldfinch Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Lesser Goldfinch in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pecos3120171973
Fence Lake1020211979
Bluewater Lake1020211999
Lakewood820082008
Angel Fire 2820232005
Cebolla620231973
Ojo Sarco620241969
Capulin519931993
Gage520241979
Stinking Lk.519971995
Mcgaffey520231994
Pinon520171992
Columbus520241993
La Plata520131992
La Cienega420221969
San Antonio419751974
Carrizozo420241968
Roswell420232001
La Plata 2420162014
Angel Fire420021992
Vallecitos420241994
Gallinas420241992
Aztec419881988
Grenville320191985
Crownpoint319931977

Lesser Goldfinch Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.