BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lesser Goldfinch Population Trend in Nevada

All statesGeneralists

Lesser Goldfinch in Nevada has surged: up 755% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

+755%Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lesser Goldfinch Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lesser Goldfinch has surged in Nevada: up 755% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

Lesser Goldfinch Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Goldfinch in Nevada is projected to rise about 103% by 2029 — from 0.54 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±748.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+103%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±748.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lesser Goldfinch in Nevada is projected to rise about 103% by 2029 — from 0.54 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±748.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.003.8
20261.10.003.8
20271.10.003.8
20281.10.003.8
20291.10.003.8

Lesser Goldfinch Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Lesser Goldfinch in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gardnerville 23520182013
Gardnerville1720121998
Meadow Vally1020241997
Willis620191988
Fallon520242002
Austin420172017
Jarbidge220152013
Comins Lake220162006
Carson River220052001
Ranchogrande120182018
Ash Meadows120131995
Nixon120102010
Hiko120231968
Beatty120162008
Val Of Fire120182011

Lesser Goldfinch Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahonew-mexicooregontexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.