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Species · Nevada · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lesser Goldfinch Population Trend in Nevada

All statesForest birds

Lesser Goldfinch in Nevada has surged: up 980% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

+980%Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lesser Goldfinch Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lesser Goldfinch has surged in Nevada: up 980% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

Lesser Goldfinch Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Goldfinch in Nevada is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±643.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±643.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lesser Goldfinch in Nevada is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±643.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.003.8
20271.10.003.8
20281.10.003.8
20291.10.003.8
20301.10.003.8

Lesser Goldfinch Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Lesser Goldfinch in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gardnerville1720121998
Gardnerville 21420252013
Meadow Vally1120251997
Austin420172017
Jarbidge220152013
Comins Lake220162006
Carson River220052001
Willis220251988
Ranchogrande120182018
Ash Meadows120131995
Nixon120102010
Fallon120252002
Hiko120231968
Beatty120162008
Val Of Fire120252011

Lesser Goldfinch Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahonew-mexicooregontexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.