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Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lesser Goldfinch In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Lesser Goldfinch in Shortgrass Prairie has edged up: up 14% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+14%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lesser Goldfinch in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Lesser Goldfinch In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Goldfinch in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 83% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.04–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+83%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±84.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lesser Goldfinch in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 83% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.04–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.190.040.35
20260.200.040.35
20270.200.040.35
20280.200.040.35
20290.200.040.35

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Lesser Goldfinch in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cone MtnCOLORADO122018
Frankel CityTEXAS72021
ElbertCOLORADO42024
Kiowa 2COLORADO32024
GrenvilleNEW-MEXICO32019
RosebudNEW-MEXICO32013
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO32019
CrowleyCOLORADO22021
VillegreenCOLORADO22023
Last Chance 2COLORADO22022
TucumcariNEW-MEXICO21975
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO22023
LamesaTEXAS22022
FloydadaTEXAS22006
KermitTEXAS21999
BriggsdaleCOLORADO11995
KiowaCOLORADO12018
AbarrCOLORADO11976
HudsonCOLORADO11990
TrincheraCOLORADO12022
NinaviewCOLORADO12024
KarvalCOLORADO11998
Doyle Bridge 2COLORADO12021
FarleyNEW-MEXICO12018
CaprockNEW-MEXICO11993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.