BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lesser Goldfinch In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaGeneralists

Lesser Goldfinch in Sierra Nevada has edged down: down 12% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-12%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lesser Goldfinch in Sierra Nevada. See the full index history below.

Lesser Goldfinch In Sierra Nevada Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Goldfinch in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 5.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.3 (95% range 1.6–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–9.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lesser Goldfinch in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 5.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.3 (95% range 1.6–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.21.48.9
20265.21.59.0
20275.21.59.0
20285.31.59.0
20295.31.69.1

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Lesser Goldfinch in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Higgins CornCALIFORNIA382024
Bass LakeCALIFORNIA292019
LakeshoreCALIFORNIA162024
Silver CityCALIFORNIA152013
KernvilleCALIFORNIA142008
Tuolumne GroveCALIFORNIA132024
Greenhorn MtCALIFORNIA122008
GeneseeCALIFORNIA112024
CoultervilleCALIFORNIA112019
Pollock PinesCALIFORNIA92024
WawonaCALIFORNIA92024
Meadow ValleyCALIFORNIA72021
ChilcootCALIFORNIA62024
PaxtonCALIFORNIA52024
Cottage SpgsCALIFORNIA41974
Pine MountainCALIFORNIA42017
DardanelleCALIFORNIA21994
JohnsvilleCALIFORNIA22023
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA22024
DownievilleCALIFORNIA22023
Hat CreekCALIFORNIA21983
Forest HillCALIFORNIA22022
WestvilleCALIFORNIA12017
LumberyardCALIFORNIA12018
Kings CanyonCALIFORNIA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.