BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lesser Goldfinch In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaForest birds

Lesser Goldfinch in Sierra Nevada has edged down: down 11% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-11%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lesser Goldfinch in Sierra Nevada. See the full index history below.

Lesser Goldfinch In Sierra Nevada Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Goldfinch in Sierra Nevada is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.3 (95% range 1.6–9.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–9.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lesser Goldfinch in Sierra Nevada is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.3 (95% range 1.6–9.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.21.58.9
20275.21.58.9
20285.31.59.0
20295.31.69.0
20305.31.69.0

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Lesser Goldfinch in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bass LakeCALIFORNIA292019
Higgins CornCALIFORNIA172025
LakeshoreCALIFORNIA162024
Silver CityCALIFORNIA152013
Forest HillCALIFORNIA152025
KernvilleCALIFORNIA142008
Greenhorn MtCALIFORNIA122008
GeneseeCALIFORNIA112024
CoultervilleCALIFORNIA112019
WawonaCALIFORNIA112025
PaxtonCALIFORNIA102025
Tuolumne GroveCALIFORNIA92025
Pollock PinesCALIFORNIA72025
Meadow ValleyCALIFORNIA62025
ChilcootCALIFORNIA62024
Cottage SpgsCALIFORNIA41974
PlacervilleCALIFORNIA42025
Pine MountainCALIFORNIA42017
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA32025
RivertonCALIFORNIA32025
DardanelleCALIFORNIA21994
JohnsvilleCALIFORNIA22025
DownievilleCALIFORNIA22023
Hat CreekCALIFORNIA21983
WestvilleCALIFORNIA12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.