BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lesser Goldfinch In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGeneralists

Lesser Goldfinch in Great Basin has surged: up 479% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+479%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lesser Goldfinch has surged in Great Basin: up 479% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Lesser Goldfinch In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Goldfinch in Great Basin is projected to rise about 235% by 2029 — from 0.35 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.53–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±275.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+235%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.53–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±275.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lesser Goldfinch in Great Basin is projected to rise about 235% by 2029 — from 0.35 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.53–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±275.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.461.7
20261.10.471.8
20271.10.491.8
20281.20.511.8
20291.20.531.8

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Lesser Goldfinch in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Iron GateCALIFORNIA512019
GiffordIDAHO502017
Gardnerville 2NEVADA352018
MacdoelCALIFORNIA342019
GardnervilleNEVADA172012
NewcastleUTAH152022
SnowdenWASHINGTON122024
DorrisCALIFORNIA112019
Meadow VallyNEVADA102024
HackamoreCALIFORNIA92010
DeschutesOREGON82024
Modoc PointOREGON82018
Fall River MillsCALIFORNIA72011
PocatelloIDAHO72019
TionestaCALIFORNIA62021
WillisNEVADA62019
NubieberCALIFORNIA52018
FallonNEVADA52024
Modoc Point 2OREGON52024
Clear Lk ResCALIFORNIA42018
Medicine Mtn.CALIFORNIA42006
JoelIDAHO42024
AustinNEVADA42017
Iron SpringsUTAH42018
Hardware RanchUTAH32023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.