BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lesser Goldfinch In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestGeneralists

Lesser Goldfinch in Northern Pacific Rainforest has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-57%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lesser Goldfinch has fallen sharply in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Lesser Goldfinch In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Goldfinch in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 74% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.42 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-74%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.42Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lesser Goldfinch in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 74% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.42 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.700.002.6
20260.630.002.5
20270.560.002.4
20280.490.002.4
20290.420.002.3

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Lesser Goldfinch in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TualatinOREGON512024
GarfieldOREGON262023
Shasta LakeCALIFORNIA182024
AlderpointCALIFORNIA152012
Hay ForkCALIFORNIA152017
Emigrant Lake 2OREGON122024
LongvaleCALIFORNIA112023
Martins FyCALIFORNIA92009
YrekaCALIFORNIA92019
SalemOREGON92024
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA82019
HullvilleCALIFORNIA82019
WedderburnOREGON72018
DaytonOREGON72022
Secret ValOREGON72022
Emigrant LkOREGON72001
GreenOREGON72024
RuchOREGON72023
DerbyOREGON61993
Rio DellCALIFORNIA52010
OrleansCALIFORNIA52012
Sams ValleyOREGON42024
CanbyOREGON42024
ScappooseOREGON42023
Fish RockCALIFORNIA32012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.