BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lesser Goldfinch In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

Lesser Goldfinch in Northern Pacific Rainforest has declined: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-50%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lesser Goldfinch in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Lesser Goldfinch In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Goldfinch in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 75% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.44 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-75%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.44Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lesser Goldfinch in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 75% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.44 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.700.002.6
20270.640.002.5
20280.570.002.4
20290.500.002.4
20300.440.002.3

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Lesser Goldfinch in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TualatinOREGON272025
DaytonOREGON162025
AlderpointCALIFORNIA152012
Hay ForkCALIFORNIA152017
LongvaleCALIFORNIA112023
GreenOREGON112025
UmpquaOREGON102025
Martins FyCALIFORNIA92009
YrekaCALIFORNIA92019
Emigrant Lake 2OREGON92025
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA82019
HullvilleCALIFORNIA82019
SalemOREGON82025
Shasta LakeCALIFORNIA72025
WedderburnOREGON72018
GarfieldOREGON72025
Emigrant LkOREGON72001
DerbyOREGON61993
Rio DellCALIFORNIA52010
OrleansCALIFORNIA52012
CoquilleOREGON52025
Fish RockCALIFORNIA32012
MccloudCALIFORNIA32014
KorbelCALIFORNIA32025
AdairOREGON32025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.