BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lesser Goldfinch In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieGeneralists

Lesser Goldfinch in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 233% on the route-weighted index since 1997.

+233%Since 1997
6Routes In Region
26Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Lesser Goldfinch has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 233% on the route-weighted index since 1997.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Goldfinch in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 431% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.76 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+431%Change by 2029
0.76Projected 2029 index
0.00–2.595% range
±90.3%Backtest error
19952029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.760.002.5
20260.760.002.5
20270.760.002.5
20280.760.002.5
20290.760.002.5

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Lesser Goldfinch in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Loyola BeachTEXAS322009
San PedroTEXAS142023
Lag AtascosaTEXAS22024
Goliad PrairieTEXAS22016
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS12024
Padre Island PaisTEXAS12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.