BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lesser Goldfinch In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

Lesser Goldfinch in Chihuahuan Desert has collapsed: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-75%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lesser Goldfinch has collapsed in Chihuahuan Desert: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Lesser Goldfinch In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Goldfinch in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 90% by 2029 — from 0.72 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-90%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lesser Goldfinch in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 90% by 2029 — from 0.72 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.190.003.6
20260.160.003.6
20270.130.003.5
20280.100.003.5
20290.070.003.5

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Lesser Goldfinch in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Salt FlatTEXAS112015
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO82008
OzonaTEXAS82012
GageNEW-MEXICO52024
PinonNEW-MEXICO52017
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO52024
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO41975
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO42024
RoswellNEW-MEXICO42023
ShafterTEXAS41980
PresidioTEXAS42022
ToyahvaleTEXAS42018
JornadaNEW-MEXICO32018
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO32023
EngleNEW-MEXICO31979
LongfellowTEXAS32018
Bear MtnTEXAS31993
Ft. DavisTEXAS32016
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO22017
Red RockNEW-MEXICO22023
MesillaNEW-MEXICO21999
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO22024
Hot SpringsTEXAS22010
ValentineTEXAS21975
CornudasTEXAS22018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.