BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lesser Goldfinch In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertForest birds

Lesser Goldfinch in Chihuahuan Desert has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-71%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lesser Goldfinch has fallen sharply in Chihuahuan Desert: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Lesser Goldfinch In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Goldfinch in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 88% by 2030 — from 0.61 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-88%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lesser Goldfinch in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 88% by 2030 — from 0.61 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.190.003.6
20270.160.003.5
20280.130.003.5
20290.100.003.5
20300.070.003.5

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Lesser Goldfinch in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Salt FlatTEXAS112015
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO82008
OzonaTEXAS82012
GageNEW-MEXICO52024
PinonNEW-MEXICO52017
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO52024
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO41975
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO42024
Red RockNEW-MEXICO42025
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO42025
ShafterTEXAS41980
PresidioTEXAS42022
JornadaNEW-MEXICO32018
EngleNEW-MEXICO31979
Black GapTEXAS32025
Ft. DavisTEXAS32016
RoswellNEW-MEXICO22024
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO22017
MesillaNEW-MEXICO21999
Hot SpringsTEXAS22010
LongfellowTEXAS22025
ValentineTEXAS21975
CornudasTEXAS22018
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS22009
MarfaTEXAS22016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.