BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lesser Goldfinch In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

Lesser Goldfinch in Sierra Madre Occidental has risen sharply: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+52%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lesser Goldfinch has risen sharply in Sierra Madre Occidental: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Lesser Goldfinch In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Goldfinch in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 63% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.6 (95% range 2.2–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+63%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–7.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±83.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lesser Goldfinch in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 63% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.6 (95% range 2.2–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.41.96.8
20264.42.06.8
20274.52.16.9
20284.62.17.0
20294.62.27.0

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Lesser Goldfinch in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PrescottARIZONA262022
CutterARIZONA152014
SahuaritaARIZONA152024
PomereneARIZONA122024
PinetopARIZONA102022
WilliamsARIZONA82019
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA82019
Mormon LakeARIZONA71974
RedingtonARIZONA62023
McnealARIZONA52017
PatagoniaARIZONA42024
DragoonARIZONA42007
Skull ValleyARIZONA32024
Forest LakesARIZONA32024
Bartlett ResARIZONA32024
Carr MtnARIZONA32024
FlagstaffARIZONA22019
Aztec PeakARIZONA21978
BlueARIZONA21981
AlpineARIZONA22023
AmadoARIZONA22023
Happy JackARIZONA22024
SprucedaleARIZONA22023
ReserveNEW-MEXICO22018
San SimonARIZONA12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.