BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lesser Goldfinch In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

Lesser Goldfinch in Sierra Madre Occidental has risen sharply: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+52%Since 1970
35Routes In Region
54Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Lesser Goldfinch has risen sharply in Sierra Madre Occidental: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Goldfinch in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 63% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.6 (95% range 2.2–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+63%Change by 2029
4.6Projected 2029 index
2.2–7.095% range
±83.1%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20254.41.96.8
20264.42.06.8
20274.52.16.9
20284.62.17.0
20294.62.27.0

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Lesser Goldfinch in Sierra Madre Occidental.
PrescottARIZONA262022
CutterARIZONA152014
SahuaritaARIZONA152024
PomereneARIZONA122024
PinetopARIZONA102022
WilliamsARIZONA82019
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA82019
Mormon LakeARIZONA71974
RedingtonARIZONA62023
McnealARIZONA52017
PatagoniaARIZONA42024
DragoonARIZONA42007
Skull ValleyARIZONA32024
Forest LakesARIZONA32024
Bartlett ResARIZONA32024
Carr MtnARIZONA32024
FlagstaffARIZONA22019
Aztec PeakARIZONA21978
BlueARIZONA21981
AlpineARIZONA22023
AmadoARIZONA22023
Happy JackARIZONA22024
SprucedaleARIZONA22023
ReserveNEW-MEXICO22018
San SimonARIZONA12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.