BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lesser Goldfinch In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalForest birds

Lesser Goldfinch in Sierra Madre Occidental has increased: up 47% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+47%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lesser Goldfinch in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Lesser Goldfinch In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Goldfinch in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 73% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 2.1–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+73%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–7.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±94.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lesser Goldfinch in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 73% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 2.1–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.31.96.7
20274.41.96.8
20284.42.06.9
20294.52.06.9
20304.52.17.0

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Lesser Goldfinch in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA192025
PomereneARIZONA162025
CutterARIZONA152014
PinetopARIZONA102022
PrescottARIZONA92025
WilliamsARIZONA82019
Mormon LakeARIZONA71974
Carr MtnARIZONA52025
SahuaritaARIZONA42025
DragoonARIZONA42007
Skull ValleyARIZONA32024
FlagstaffARIZONA22019
Aztec PeakARIZONA21978
BlueARIZONA21981
PatagoniaARIZONA22025
Forest LakesARIZONA22025
Bartlett ResARIZONA22025
AlpineARIZONA22023
McnealARIZONA22025
Happy JackARIZONA22024
Clay SpringARIZONA22025
SprucedaleARIZONA22023
PortalARIZONA22025
Skull Valley 2ARIZONA22025
ReserveNEW-MEXICO22018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.