BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lesser Goldfinch In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesForest birds

Lesser Goldfinch in Northern Rockies has surged: up 552% on the route-weighted index since 2005.

+552%Since 2005TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lesser Goldfinch in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Lesser Goldfinch In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Goldfinch in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 0.10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.02–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±80.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lesser Goldfinch in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 0.10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.02–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19842030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.070.010.12
20270.070.010.13
20280.070.010.13
20290.070.020.13
20300.070.020.13

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Lesser Goldfinch in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MonumentOREGON82025
TwickenhamOREGON62024
MadrasOREGON42025
MeeteetseWYOMING32018
Mtn ViewWYOMING22016
Browns ParkCOLORADO11993
WickiupOREGON12025
Summit PrOREGON11984
TroyOREGON12025
NewbridgeOREGON12024
WoodruffUTAH12025
WalcottWYOMING12017
SeedskadeeWYOMING12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.