BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lesser Goldfinch In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGeneralists

Lesser Goldfinch in Oaks and Prairies has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-51%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lesser Goldfinch has fallen sharply in Oaks and Prairies: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Lesser Goldfinch In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Goldfinch in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 47% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±311.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+47%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±311.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lesser Goldfinch in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 47% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±311.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.100.000.24
20260.100.000.24
20270.100.000.24
20280.100.000.24
20290.090.000.24

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Lesser Goldfinch in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OsageTEXAS52021
Three RiversTEXAS32024
BriteTEXAS32021
HobsonTEXAS22009
Glen RoseTEXAS21988
AlbanyTEXAS22010
WalburgTEXAS21994
ComancheTEXAS22002
CampbelltonTEXAS12016
LockhartTEXAS12023
Lone OakTEXAS12019
SeldenTEXAS11969
CottonwoodTEXAS12017
OlneyTEXAS12009
YoakumTEXAS12012
BonnerTEXAS12012
Whit Mtn.TEXAS12013
MegargelTEXAS11997

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.