BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lesser Goldfinch In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsGeneralists

Lesser Goldfinch in Tamaulipan Brushlands has surged: up 187% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+187%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lesser Goldfinch has surged in Tamaulipan Brushlands: up 187% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Lesser Goldfinch In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Goldfinch in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.92 (95% range 0.26–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.92Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.26–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lesser Goldfinch in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.92 (95% range 0.26–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.870.211.5
20260.880.221.5
20270.890.241.6
20280.910.251.6
20290.920.261.6

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Lesser Goldfinch in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HondoTEXAS112024
RachalTEXAS52023
RaymondvilleTEXAS52024
Mirando CityTEXAS42014
George WestTEXAS42023
KingsvilleTEXAS32002
RandadoTEXAS22014
El SauzTEXAS22012
ProgresoTEXAS22009
LaredoTEXAS22023
HeidelbergTEXAS22013
Agua NuevaTEXAS12012
EncinalTEXAS12004
CatarinaTEXAS12006
La PryorTEXAS12009
El IndioTEXAS12001
Encinal 2TEXAS12012
SejitaTEXAS12012
MillettTEXAS12012
Pedro CreekTEXAS11996
Cavasara Cr.TEXAS12009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.