BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lesser Goldfinch In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

Lesser Goldfinch in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 211% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+211%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
147Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lesser Goldfinch has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 211% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Lesser Goldfinch In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Goldfinch in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.54–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.54–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lesser Goldfinch in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.54–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.502.1
20261.30.512.1
20271.30.522.1
20281.30.532.1
20291.30.542.1

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Lesser Goldfinch in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PecosNEW-MEXICO312017
LudlowCOLORADO172016
CokedaleCOLORADO162024
Gold HillCOLORADO112012
CortezCOLORADO102008
WalsenburgCOLORADO102024
Fence LakeNEW-MEXICO102021
Bluewater LakeNEW-MEXICO102021
YampaCOLORADO82023
FalfaCOLORADO82024
Gold Hill 2COLORADO82024
Angel Fire 2NEW-MEXICO82023
ShivwitzUTAH82024
WestcliffeCOLORADO72024
Douglas PassCOLORADO62024
Wet Mtns.COLORADO62024
CebollaNEW-MEXICO62023
Ojo SarcoNEW-MEXICO62024
KamasUTAH62024
SawmillARIZONA52014
De BequeCOLORADO52024
Gribbles PrkCOLORADO52024
Stinking Lk.NEW-MEXICO51997
McgaffeyNEW-MEXICO52023
La PlataNEW-MEXICO52013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.