BirdAnalyst
Guild · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Forest Birds In Utah

All statesUtah

38 species in this guild. As a group they are -19%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1970.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for forest birds in Utah. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Utah is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.11–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.11–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Utah is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.11–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.172.7
20261.40.152.7
20271.40.142.7
20281.40.122.7
20291.40.112.7

Member Species In Utah

Forest birds species in Utah.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Canyon WrenTroglodytidae-95%
Swainson's ThrushTurdidae-92%
Lewis's WoodpeckerPicidae-81%
Wilson's WarblerParulidae-81%
Virginia's WarblerParulidae-78%
Pygmy NuthatchSittidae-71%
Townsend's SolitaireTurdidae-69%
Orange-crowned WarblerParulidae-57%
Black-capped ChickadeeParidae-57%
Brown CreeperCerthiidae-50%
Downy WoodpeckerPicidae-39%
White-breasted NuthatchSittidae-36%
Hairy WoodpeckerPicidae-24%
Western BluebirdTurdidae-20%
Black-throated Gray WarblerParulidae-18%
Golden-crowned KingletRegulidae-8%
Bewick's WrenTroglodytidae-8%
Williamson's SapsuckerPicidae-7%
Juniper TitmouseParidae+0%
Mountain ChickadeeParidae+10%
American RobinTurdidae+11%
Gray VireoVireonidae+13%
Marsh WrenTroglodytidae+24%
Hermit ThrushTurdidae+29%
Grace's WarblerParulidae+40%
American Three-toed WoodpeckerPicidae+45%
Mountain BluebirdTurdidae+48%
Red-breasted NuthatchSittidae+167%
Red-naped SapsuckerPicidae+177%
Plumbeous VireoVireonidae+217%
Rock WrenTroglodytidae+232%
Common YellowthroatParulidae+333%
MacGillivray's WarblerParulidae+346%
Blue-gray GnatcatcherPolioptilidae+384%
Yellow WarblerParulidae+396%
Warbling VireoVireonidae+808%
Northern House WrenTroglodytidae+867%
Ruby-crowned KingletRegulidae13×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.