BirdAnalyst
Guild · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Forest Birds In Alaska

All statesAlaska

51 species in this guild. As a group they are -44%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1972.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Forest birds as a group have declined in Alaska, down 44% since 1972.

Forest Birds In Alaska Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Alaska is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 5.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 1.1–7.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–7.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Alaska is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 5.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 1.1–7.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.71.38.1
20274.71.38.0
20284.61.28.0
20294.51.17.9
20304.51.17.9

Member Species In Alaska

Forest birds species in Alaska.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
MacGillivray's WarblerParulidae-93%
Gray-crowned Rosy-FinchFringillidae-92%
Tennessee WarblerParulidae-92%
Rufous HummingbirdTrochilidae-90%
Pine SiskinFringillidae-81%
Bohemian WaxwingBombycillidae-81%
Red CrossbillFringillidae-79%
Steller's JayCorvidae-72%
Hairy WoodpeckerPicidae-69%
Common YellowthroatParulidae-64%
Black-capped ChickadeeParidae-58%
Gray-cheeked ThrushTurdidae-54%
Brown CreeperCerthiidae-54%
Arctic WarblerPhylloscopidae-50%
Pine GrosbeakFringillidae-50%
Song SparrowPasserellidae-48%
American RedstartParulidae-44%
Downy WoodpeckerPicidae-42%
Chipping SparrowPasserellidae-42%
Cedar WaxwingBombycillidae-34%
White-crowned SparrowPasserellidae-18%
Pacific WrenTroglodytidae-11%
Yellow WarblerParulidae-10%
Red-breasted SapsuckerPicidae-9%
Swainson's ThrushTurdidae-8%
Wilson's WarblerParulidae+3%
Northern WheatearMuscicapidae+10%
Lincoln's SparrowPasserellidae+13%
Blackpoll WarblerParulidae+16%
Canada JayCorvidae+19%
Townsend's SolitaireTurdidae+26%
American RobinTurdidae+35%
Fox SparrowPasserellidae+77%
Golden-crowned KingletRegulidae+81%
American Three-toed WoodpeckerPicidae+82%
Boreal ChickadeeParidae+100%
Townsend's WarblerParulidae+115%
Northern WaterthrushParulidae+129%
Ruby-crowned KingletRegulidae+129%
Varied ThrushTurdidae+135%
Hermit ThrushTurdidae+142%
Chestnut-backed ChickadeeParidae+154%
White-winged CrossbillFringillidae+156%
Western TanagerCardinalidae+178%
Black-backed WoodpeckerPicidae+182%
Golden-crowned SparrowPasserellidae+239%
Orange-crowned WarblerParulidae+294%
American Tree SparrowPasserellidae+500%
Warbling VireoVireonidae+551%
BluethroatMuscicapidae+612%
Red-breasted NuthatchSittidae+930%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.