BirdAnalyst
Guild · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Forest Birds In Alaska

All statesAlaska

30 species in this guild. As a group they are -39%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1972.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for forest birds in Alaska. See the full index history below.

Forest Birds In Alaska Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Alaska is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 6.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.4 (95% range 1.5–9.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–9.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Alaska is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 6.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.4 (95% range 1.5–9.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.61.89.5
20265.61.79.4
20275.51.79.3
20285.41.69.3
20295.41.59.2

Member Species In Alaska

Forest birds species in Alaska.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
MacGillivray's WarblerParulidae-92%
Tennessee WarblerParulidae-90%
Hairy WoodpeckerPicidae-66%
Common YellowthroatParulidae-65%
Brown CreeperCerthiidae-61%
Gray-cheeked ThrushTurdidae-58%
Black-capped ChickadeeParidae-58%
Downy WoodpeckerPicidae-37%
American RedstartParulidae-34%
Pacific WrenTroglodytidae-15%
Swainson's ThrushTurdidae-6%
Yellow WarblerParulidae-5%
Red-breasted SapsuckerPicidae+3%
Wilson's WarblerParulidae+4%
Blackpoll WarblerParulidae+7%
Townsend's SolitaireTurdidae+26%
American RobinTurdidae+37%
Golden-crowned KingletRegulidae+73%
American Three-toed WoodpeckerPicidae+112%
Boreal ChickadeeParidae+113%
Ruby-crowned KingletRegulidae+128%
Townsend's WarblerParulidae+131%
Varied ThrushTurdidae+143%
Hermit ThrushTurdidae+155%
Chestnut-backed ChickadeeParidae+169%
Northern WaterthrushParulidae+180%
Black-backed WoodpeckerPicidae+182%
Orange-crowned WarblerParulidae+331%
Warbling VireoVireonidae+778%
Red-breasted NuthatchSittidae+801%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.