BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pacific Wren Population Trend in Alaska

All statesForest birds

Pacific Wren in Alaska has edged down: down 11% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-11%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pacific Wren Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Pacific Wren in Alaska. See the full index history below.

Pacific Wren Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Pacific Wren in Alaska is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 6.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pacific Wren in Alaska is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 6.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.80.0012
20275.80.0012
20285.70.0012
20295.70.0012
20305.60.0011

Pacific Wren Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Pacific Wren in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Craig7620251983
Chiniak7520251985
Petersburg7319871987
Beaver Creek6619771977
Whale Pass6520241997
Thorne Bay5720121989
Thorne Bay 25620252013
Kodiak 25420251985
Chichagof Is4820241994
Mitkof Isle4020251988
Hoonah3220241993
Kuiu Island3120102004
Sitka3120241993
Zarembo2820241993
Sitka (Short)2619921984
Zimovia Strt2520251988
Harlequin L.2220241993
Ketchikan2020221972
Yakutat1820251993
Stikine River1720241998
Juneau1520251983
Cordova1520241983
Haines1320251972
Kodiak1219841983
Hyder920091994

Pacific Wren Population Trend in Other States

californiaidahomontananevadaoregonsouth-dakotawashington

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.