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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pacific Wren Population Trend in Alaska

All statesForest birds

Pacific Wren in Alaska has edged down: down 15% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-15%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pacific Wren Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Pacific Wren in Alaska. See the full index history below.

Pacific Wren Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Pacific Wren in Alaska is projected to fall about 37% by 2029 — from 9.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-37%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pacific Wren in Alaska is projected to fall about 37% by 2029 — from 9.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.90.0012
20265.80.0012
20275.80.0012
20285.70.0012
20295.70.0012

Pacific Wren Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Pacific Wren in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Petersburg7319871987
Beaver Creek6619771977
Craig6520241983
Whale Pass6520241997
Thorne Bay 26220242013
Chiniak6120241985
Thorne Bay5720121989
Chichagof Is4820241994
Kodiak 24620241985
Mitkof Isle3320241988
Hoonah3220241993
Yakutat3220241993
Kuiu Island3120102004
Zimovia Strt3120241988
Sitka3120241993
Zarembo2820241993
Sitka (Short)2619921984
Harlequin L.2220241993
Ketchikan2020221972
Stikine River1720241998
Cordova1520241983
Kodiak1219841983
Hyder920091994
Juneau820241983
Wrangell (Short)819841984

Pacific Wren Population Trend in Other States

californiaidahomontananevadaoregonsouth-dakotawashington

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.