BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pacific Wren Population Trend in Oregon

All statesForest birds

Pacific Wren in Oregon has surged: up 124% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+124%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pacific Wren Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pacific Wren has surged in Oregon: up 124% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Pacific Wren Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Pacific Wren in Oregon is projected to rise about 96% by 2029 — from 3.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 3.6–8.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+96%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.6–8.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±78.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pacific Wren in Oregon is projected to rise about 96% by 2029 — from 3.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 3.6–8.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.83.38.3
20265.93.48.4
20276.03.48.5
20286.13.58.6
20296.13.68.7

Pacific Wren Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Pacific Wren in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fisher4720101997
Bull Run4220242007
Klickitat Mt4119961993
Santiam3720241994
Sandy River3220061993
Waldport3220011992
Lorane2720241993
Nicolai Mtn.2420241993
Harlan 22420242011
Svensen2419921990
Riley Peak2320161994
Winberry2220231968
Harlan2120092006
Trask Summit2120241992
Salado2020241968
Molalla1820241994
Cool Camp1320131968
Fisher 21320242017
Warner Mtn.1320241992
Blue River1020241992
Myrtle Grove920241992
Timber720171968
Cinderella620241993
Shellrock520231968
Hauser519851970

Pacific Wren Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniaidahomontananevadasouth-dakotawashington

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.