BirdAnalyst
Species · Idaho · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pacific Wren Population Trend in Idaho

All statesForest birds

Pacific Wren in Idaho has surged: up 583% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+583%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pacific Wren Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pacific Wren has surged in Idaho: up 583% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Pacific Wren Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Pacific Wren in Idaho is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.3 (95% range 0.83–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1560%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.83–3.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1560%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pacific Wren in Idaho is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.3 (95% range 0.83–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1560%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.20.703.6
20262.20.733.6
20272.20.763.7
20282.20.803.7
20292.30.833.7

Pacific Wren Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Pacific Wren in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lolo Pass1520191994
Pierce1120071992
Nezperce1020121989
Mivoden820231977
Avery820231979
Golden820151987
Marble Creek620231988
N Fork Cda R620191993
Salmon River620211989
Nezperce Nf419991996
Baldy Mountain420152013
Rochat Divde220231993
Challis220192019
Naples120221972
Grangeville120241986
Deep Creek119851985
Burgdorf119981990
Coolin120221986

Pacific Wren Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniamontananevadaoregonsouth-dakotawashington

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.