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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Boreal Chickadee Population Trend in Alaska

All statesForest birds

Boreal Chickadee in Alaska has surged: up 113% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+113%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Boreal Chickadee Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Boreal Chickadee has surged in Alaska: up 113% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Boreal Chickadee Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Boreal Chickadee in Alaska is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.72–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+33%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.72–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Boreal Chickadee in Alaska is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.72–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.671.9
20261.30.681.9
20271.30.691.9
20281.30.712.0
20291.30.722.0

Boreal Chickadee Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Boreal Chickadee in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Thorne Bay1519911991
Hope1020241993
Slana920241994
Kuskulana920241990
Kanuti Lake820242006
Birch Lake720212000
Chistochina620241990
Delta620241997
Tatalina620191997
Chicken620231992
Swan Lake Rd520231984
Homer419821977
Nicholai Sl420191993
Chena River419881988
Tower Bluffs320231996
Northway320231989
Skilak Lake319851977
Willow320221994
Moose Creek320222005
Murphy Dome320231994
Ft. Richrdsn320221997
Katmai N.P.320221993
Mccarthy Rd2320241991
Savage320241986
Moose Pass319851985

Boreal Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

mainemichiganminnesotamontananew-hampshirenew-yorkvermontwisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.