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Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Boreal Chickadee Population Trend in Alaska

All statesForest birds

Boreal Chickadee in Alaska has surged: up 100% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+100%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Boreal Chickadee Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Boreal Chickadee has surged in Alaska: up 100% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Boreal Chickadee Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Boreal Chickadee in Alaska is projected to fall about 10% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.76–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.76–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Boreal Chickadee in Alaska is projected to fall about 10% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.76–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.701.9
20271.30.712.0
20281.40.732.0
20291.40.742.0
20301.40.762.0

Boreal Chickadee Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Boreal Chickadee in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Thorne Bay1519911991
Kuskulana1020251990
Kenny Lake1020251983
Slana920241994
Kanuti Lake820242006
Delta620241997
Tatalina620191997
Chistochina520251990
Kalifonsky520252012
Mccarthy Rd2520251991
Chicken520251992
Tower Bluffs420251996
Monahan420251983
Homer419821977
Nicholai Sl420191993
Chena River419881988
Dietrich Cmp420251996
Eagle320251991
Nabesna Road320251990
Skilak Lake319851977
Willow320221994
Moose Creek320222005
Ft. Richrdsn320221997
Katmai N.P.320251993
Lake Louise320251993

Boreal Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

mainemichiganminnesotamontananew-hampshirenew-yorkvermontwisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.