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Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-breasted Sapsucker Population Trend in Alaska

All statesForest birds

Red-breasted Sapsucker in Alaska has held roughly steady: down 9% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

-9%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-breasted Sapsucker Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-breasted Sapsucker in Alaska. See the full index history below.

Red-breasted Sapsucker Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Sapsucker in Alaska is projected to rise about 141% by 2030 — from 0.91 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 0.46–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+141%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.46–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Sapsucker in Alaska is projected to rise about 141% by 2030 — from 0.91 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 0.46–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.10.383.9
20272.10.403.9
20282.20.423.9
20292.20.443.9
20302.20.464.0

Red-breasted Sapsucker Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Red-breasted Sapsucker in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chichagof Is3620241994
Petersburg2419871987
Hoonah2020241993
Thorne Bay1920121990
Zarembo1620241993
Zimovia Strt1220251989
Juneau1120251983
Thorne Bay 21120252013
Kuiu Island1020102004
Beaver Creek1019771977
Whale Pass1020241997
Mitkof Isle1020251988
Juneau Alt519851984
Craig520251983
Skagway320251994
Sitka (Short)319921984
Harlequin L.320241993
Hyder220091995
Sitka220241993
Stikine River120221999
Ketchikan120221989
Haines120251994
Wrangell (Short)119841984
Yakutat120231997

Red-breasted Sapsucker Population Trend in Other States

californiaidahomontananevadaoregonwashington

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.