BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-breasted Sapsucker Population Trend in California

All statesForest birds

Red-breasted Sapsucker in California has surged: up 150% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+150%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
113Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-breasted Sapsucker Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-breasted Sapsucker has surged in California: up 150% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red-breasted Sapsucker Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Sapsucker in California is projected to rise about 72% by 2029 — from 0.44 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.76 (95% range 0.41–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+72%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.76Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.41–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Sapsucker in California is projected to rise about 72% by 2029 — from 0.44 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.76 (95% range 0.41–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.720.381.1
20260.730.391.1
20270.740.401.1
20280.750.401.1
20290.760.411.1

Red-breasted Sapsucker Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Red-breasted Sapsucker in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Friday Ridge1020241994
Woodfords720221974
Chilcoot720242008
South Fork Mtn720222000
Gazelle620211988
Crowder Flat620192002
Meadow Valley620242005
Little Truckee620231997
Forest Hill620221998
Fish Rock520141969
Greenhorn Mt520081971
Mt Shasta520191972
Genesee520241972
Riverton520231973
Lassen Park419871973
Korbel420211972
Goumaz420111998
Cecilville420172000
Calpella319861977
Hullville320191968
Mt Laguna319711971
Butte Meadow320141972
Tahoe Nf319941987
Pilot Creek319961994
Whiskeytown320072002

Red-breasted Sapsucker Population Trend in Other States

alaskaidahomontananevadaoregonwashington

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.