BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Clark's Nutcracker

CorvidaeForest birdsNucifraga columbiana

Clark's Nutcracker has surged: up 210% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+210%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
436RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Clark's Nutcracker

The Clark's Nutcracker (Nucifraga columbiana) is a North American member of the Crows, Jays & Magpies (Corvidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
10–27.5 in long (25–70 cm) — a medium to large songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 436 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 12 states, most concentrated in the Northern Rockies.
Family
Corvidae · Forest birds

Notable Clark's Nutcracker TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Clark's Nutcracker has surged in surveyed states: up 210% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Clark's Nutcracker Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Clark's Nutcracker is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 0.22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.15–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.26Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.15–0.3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±67%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Clark's Nutcracker is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 0.22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.15–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.250.140.35
20260.250.150.36
20270.260.150.36
20280.260.150.36
20290.260.150.37

Where the Clark's Nutcracker Is Detected

BBS routes recording Clark's Nutcracker, sized by most recent count.

Clark's Nutcracker Population Trend by State

Clark's Nutcracker population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Arizona-4%197414
California-64%197150
Colorado20×197177
Idaho-38%197430
Montana+23%197052
Nevada+40%199710
New Mexico-56%197317
Oregon-53%197052
South Dakota-79%19996
Utah+133%197446
Washington-41%197031
Wyoming+187%197051

Clark's Nutcracker Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Clark's Nutcracker population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Northern Pacific Rainforest-46%197510
Great Basin-33%197078
Northern Rockies+9%1970146
Sierra Nevada-11%197318
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau+342%1970142
Badlands and Prairies-79%198118
Coastal California-95%197111
Sierra Madre Occidental+7%197511

Clark's Nutcracker Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 210% since 1970.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.