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Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Clark's Nutcracker Population Trend in Utah

All statesGeneralists

Clark's Nutcracker in Utah has surged: up 133% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+133%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Clark's Nutcracker Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Clark's Nutcracker has surged in Utah: up 132% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Clark's Nutcracker Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Clark's Nutcracker in Utah is projected to rise about 76% by 2029 — from 0.75 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.33–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±118.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+76%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.33–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±118.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Clark's Nutcracker in Utah is projected to rise about 76% by 2029 — from 0.75 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.33–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±118.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.282.3
20261.30.292.3
20271.30.302.3
20281.30.322.3
20291.30.332.3

Clark's Nutcracker Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Clark's Nutcracker in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ferron4620222000
Dixie Nf1120241993
Vernal1120162003
Logan Canyon1020191999
La Sal 31020242007
Beck919861986
Altonah620151968
Hill Creek619951993
Heber Mtn.620231996
Gooseberry520241994
La Sal520001993
Moon Lake 2420232004
Red Spur Mtn.420221997
Bryce Canyon420241990
Navajo Lake420241968
Hardware Ranch420141995
Hyrum319751975
Grizzly Rdge320021996
Skyline Driv320161987
Newcastle320111999
Monticello320041999
Beryl320112008
Main Canyon320241987
Fayette220191998
Beck 2220181991

Clark's Nutcracker Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexicooregonsouth-dakotawashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.