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Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Clark's Nutcracker Population Trend in Utah

All statesForest birds

Clark's Nutcracker in Utah has risen sharply: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+70%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Clark's Nutcracker Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Clark's Nutcracker has risen sharply in Utah: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Clark's Nutcracker Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Clark's Nutcracker in Utah is projected to rise about 73% by 2030 — from 0.73 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.29–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±124.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+73%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.29–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±124.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Clark's Nutcracker in Utah is projected to rise about 73% by 2030 — from 0.73 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.29–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±124.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.20.252.2
20271.20.262.2
20281.30.272.2
20291.30.282.3
20301.30.292.3

Clark's Nutcracker Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Clark's Nutcracker in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Vernal1120162003
Logan Canyon1020191999
Ferron1020252000
La Sal 31020242007
Beck919861986
Heber Mtn.920251996
Fish Lake Nf820251992
Altonah620151968
Hill Creek619951993
Bryce Canyon520251990
La Sal520001993
Dixie Nf520251993
Moon Lake 2420232004
Red Spur Mtn.420221997
Hardware Ranch420141995
Hyrum319751975
Grizzly Rdge320021996
Beaver320251979
Soapstone320251996
Skyline Driv320161987
Newcastle320111999
Monticello320041999
Beryl320112008
Main Canyon320241987
Navajo Lake220251968

Clark's Nutcracker Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexicooregonsouth-dakotawashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.