BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Clark's Nutcracker Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGeneralists

Clark's Nutcracker in New Mexico has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-56%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Clark's Nutcracker Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Clark's Nutcracker has fallen sharply in New Mexico: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Clark's Nutcracker Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Clark's Nutcracker in New Mexico is projected to rise about 186% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±216.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+186%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±216.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Clark's Nutcracker in New Mexico is projected to rise about 186% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±216.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.200.000.66
20260.200.000.66
20270.190.000.66
20280.190.000.65
20290.190.000.65

Clark's Nutcracker Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Clark's Nutcracker in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ojo Sarco2020181968
Mt. Taylor920121993
Emory Pass619971995
Vallecitos520231994
Bluewater Lake420211999
Angel Fire420021992
Reserve320221993
Dulce220032001
Cebolla220231977
Mt. Taylor 2220242014
Angel Fire 2120242006
Pecos120091978
Horse Spgs119991999
Horse Mtn119731973
Stinking Lk.119971995
Mcgaffey120162015
Gallinas120191997

Clark's Nutcracker Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.