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Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Clark's Nutcracker Population Trend in Washington

All statesGeneralists

Clark's Nutcracker in Washington has declined: down 41% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-41%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Clark's Nutcracker Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Clark's Nutcracker in Washington. See the full index history below.

Clark's Nutcracker Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Clark's Nutcracker in Washington is projected to fall about 58% by 2028 — from 0.18 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-58%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±63.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Clark's Nutcracker in Washington is projected to fall about 58% by 2028 — from 0.18 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.100.000.71
20250.090.000.71
20260.090.000.70
20270.080.000.70
20280.080.000.69

Clark's Nutcracker Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Clark's Nutcracker in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
L Pend O Nwr3119951995
Twisp820191969
Winthrop820211988
Nighthawk520231993
Omak Creek520232007
E. Mt. Adams320062006
Lake Chelan320091991
Chewelah219931979
Rimrock220181968
Tonasket220101991
Wilbur220011985
Spring Lake219941994
Hurricane Rg220082008
Selah120052005
Keller120071968
Ardenvoir119731972
Sullivan Lake 2120082008
Glacier120212021
Twin Lakes119871983
Ronald120152014
Leavenworth120171987
Ellensburg120021993
Carlton120221995
Curlew120181994
Blewett Pass120151992

Clark's Nutcracker Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexicooregonsouth-dakotautahwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.