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Species · Washington · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Clark's Nutcracker Population Trend in Washington

All statesForest birds

Clark's Nutcracker in Washington has fallen sharply: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-60%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Clark's Nutcracker Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Clark's Nutcracker has fallen sharply in Washington: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Clark's Nutcracker Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Clark's Nutcracker in Washington is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Clark's Nutcracker in Washington is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.080.000.69
20270.080.000.69
20280.070.000.68
20290.070.000.68
20300.060.000.67

Clark's Nutcracker Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Clark's Nutcracker in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
L Pend O Nwr3119951995
Twisp820191969
Winthrop820211988
Nighthawk520231993
Omak Creek520232007
E. Mt. Adams320062006
Lake Chelan320091991
Chewelah219931979
Rimrock220181968
Tonasket220101991
Wilbur220011985
Hurricane Rg220082008
Selah120052005
Keller120071968
Ardenvoir119731972
Sullivan Lake 2120082008
Glacier120212021
Twin Lakes119871983
Ronald120152014
Leavenworth120171987
Ellensburg120021993
Spring Lake120251994
Carlton120221995
Curlew120181994
Blewett Pass120151992

Clark's Nutcracker Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexicooregonsouth-dakotautahwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.