BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Clark's Nutcracker Population Trend in Oregon

All statesGeneralists

Clark's Nutcracker in Oregon has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-53%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Clark's Nutcracker Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Clark's Nutcracker has fallen sharply in Oregon: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Clark's Nutcracker Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Clark's Nutcracker in Oregon is projected to rise about 39% by 2029 — from 0.39 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.54 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+39%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.54Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Clark's Nutcracker in Oregon is projected to rise about 39% by 2029 — from 0.39 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.54 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.540.001.2
20260.540.001.2
20270.540.001.2
20280.540.001.2
20290.540.001.2

Clark's Nutcracker Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Clark's Nutcracker in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sisters1320241998
Barnes Val1119851985
Dell Spring919901968
Picture Flat920211993
Donnelly820062004
Chinchalo620221995
Zumwalt520031995
Silvies520231994
Paunina520131994
Emigrant Lake 2420022002
Joseph419851985
Eagle Rock419791973
Ochoco420211995
Newbridge420241996
Bald Mtn.420241993
Flora320031986
Bly 2320242007
Mount Vernon320191986
Bly319951988
Desolation319991998
Albee220231968
Deschutes220211971
Bridgeport220111989
Buchanan219991979
Paisley220231973

Clark's Nutcracker Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexicosouth-dakotautahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.