BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Clark's Nutcracker Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Clark's Nutcracker in South Dakota has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1999.

-79%Since 1999TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
19YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Clark's Nutcracker Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Clark's Nutcracker has collapsed in South Dakota: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1999.

Clark's Nutcracker Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Clark's Nutcracker in South Dakota is projected to fall about 100% by 2027 — from 0.12 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±438.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±438.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Clark's Nutcracker in South Dakota is projected to fall about 100% by 2027 — from 0.12 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±438.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19952027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.000.000.39
20240.000.000.39
20250.000.000.39
20260.000.000.39
20270.000.000.39

Clark's Nutcracker Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Clark's Nutcracker in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pleasant Val420221995
Hill City320092009
Hazelrodt220191998
Lightning Cr220152001
Wind Cave Np120051999
Norbeck119951995

Clark's Nutcracker Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexicooregonutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.