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Species · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Clark's Nutcracker Population Trend in Montana

All statesForest birds

Clark's Nutcracker in Montana has surged: up 118% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+118%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Clark's Nutcracker Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Clark's Nutcracker has surged in Montana: up 118% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Clark's Nutcracker Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Clark's Nutcracker in Montana is projected to fall about 41% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.86 (95% range 0.12–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±121.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-41%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.86Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.12–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±121.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Clark's Nutcracker in Montana is projected to fall about 41% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.86 (95% range 0.12–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±121.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.830.101.6
20270.840.101.6
20280.850.111.6
20290.850.121.6
20300.860.121.6

Clark's Nutcracker Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Clark's Nutcracker in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Red Rock6820251978
Libby Dam1919941989
Freeman Creek1720162016
Skalkaho1219981992
Skalkho-Rye1120221999
Pryor Mtn.920251995
Ninemile919951993
Maynard Coulee820252018
Willow Creek 2620211985
Sula620241986
Greenough520031995
Boulder520251972
Two Dot520241980
Shawmut520061995
Heart Butte520252015
Pagil Gulch520252015
Hebgen Lake520252018
Victor420221993
Cramer Creek420111995
Reed Point420171978
Greenoagh 3420182013
Painted Rock420191992
Chestnut320191968
Beaverhead319941994
Greenoagh 2320112008

Clark's Nutcracker Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.