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Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Clark's Nutcracker In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaGeneralists

Clark's Nutcracker in Sierra Nevada has edged down: down 11% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-11%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Clark's Nutcracker in Sierra Nevada. See the full index history below.

Clark's Nutcracker In Sierra Nevada Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Clark's Nutcracker in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 182% by 2029 — from 0.63 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.24–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+182%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.24–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±87.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Clark's Nutcracker in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 182% by 2029 — from 0.63 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.24–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.70.193.3
20261.70.203.3
20271.80.223.3
20281.80.233.3
20291.80.243.3

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Clark's Nutcracker in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hat CreekCALIFORNIA102006
Lassen ParkCALIFORNIA81989
Last ChanceCALIFORNIA82019
Pine MountainCALIFORNIA72017
CrestviewCALIFORNIA72024
GoumazCALIFORNIA42011
Little TruckeeCALIFORNIA42023
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA22024
DardanelleCALIFORNIA22019
Chaos CraterCALIFORNIA22007
Meadow ValleyCALIFORNIA22008
ChilcootCALIFORNIA22024
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA12024
LumberyardCALIFORNIA12008
Greenhorn MtCALIFORNIA12008
Kings CanyonCALIFORNIA12016
SattleyCALIFORNIA12019
Butte MeadowCALIFORNIA11994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.