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Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Clark's Nutcracker In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGeneralists

Clark's Nutcracker in Northern Rockies has held roughly steady: up 9% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+9%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
146Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Clark's Nutcracker in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Clark's Nutcracker in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 52% by 2029 — from 0.89 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.26–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+52%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.26–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±74.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Clark's Nutcracker in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 52% by 2029 — from 0.89 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.26–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.252.5
20261.40.252.5
20271.40.262.5
20281.40.262.5
20291.40.262.5

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Clark's Nutcracker in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
L Pend O NwrWASHINGTON311995
Libby DamMONTANA191994
AlpineWYOMING192024
MooseWYOMING182024
Freeman CreekMONTANA172016
FeathervilleIDAHO162010
DuboisWYOMING142024
WalcottWYOMING142001
NaplesIDAHO122009
SkalkahoMONTANA121998
Skalkho-RyeMONTANA112022
Prior FlatsWYOMING112024
NinemileMONTANA91995
West ThumbWYOMING91982
Bald MtnWYOMING92024
Horse CreekWYOMING92024
YellowstoneWYOMING92022
Wise RiverMONTANA82022
DonnellyOREGON82006
Heart ButteMONTANA72021
Gas HillsWYOMING71993
SulaMONTANA62024
Willow Creek 2MONTANA62021
AnchorWYOMING62018
Lolo PassIDAHO51998

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.