BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Clark's Nutcracker In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesForest birds

Clark's Nutcracker in Northern Rockies has edged up: up 16% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+16%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
147Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Clark's Nutcracker in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Clark's Nutcracker In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Clark's Nutcracker in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.30–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.30–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Clark's Nutcracker in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.30–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.40.282.5
20271.40.292.5
20281.40.292.5
20291.40.292.5
20301.40.302.5

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Clark's Nutcracker in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Red RockMONTANA682025
L Pend O NwrWASHINGTON311995
Libby DamMONTANA191994
AlpineWYOMING192024
Freeman CreekMONTANA172016
FeathervilleIDAHO162010
Prior FlatsWYOMING162025
WilsonWYOMING152025
WalcottWYOMING142001
NaplesIDAHO122009
SkalkahoMONTANA121998
CobaltIDAHO112025
Skalkho-RyeMONTANA112022
YellowstoneWYOMING112025
Buckskin MtnWYOMING102025
NinemileMONTANA91995
Pryor Mtn.MONTANA92025
West ThumbWYOMING91982
Bald MtnWYOMING92024
Fiddler LkWYOMING92025
DonnellyOREGON82006
Gas HillsWYOMING71993
SulaMONTANA62024
Willow Creek 2MONTANA62021
MammothWYOMING62025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.