BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Clark's Nutcracker In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

Clark's Nutcracker in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 342% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+342%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
142Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Clark's Nutcracker has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 342% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Clark's Nutcracker In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Clark's Nutcracker in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.3 (95% range 1.2–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Clark's Nutcracker in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.3 (95% range 1.2–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.21.13.2
20262.21.13.2
20272.21.23.3
20282.31.23.3
20292.31.23.3

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Clark's Nutcracker in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FerronUTAH462022
Piceance BasinCOLORADO382004
Moon PassCOLORADO372024
South ForkCOLORADO312024
Ojo SarcoNEW-MEXICO202018
Mount EvansCOLORADO192024
Pinos CreekCOLORADO181990
SummitvilleCOLORADO162024
Fox CreekCOLORADO162024
FlattopsCOLORADO152017
NuclaCOLORADO152024
Haycamp MesaCOLORADO152024
Deadman Rd.COLORADO142024
DinosaurCOLORADO142019
Cochetopa PassCOLORADO142024
GuffeyCOLORADO122024
Gribbles PrkCOLORADO122024
Owl Creek PassCOLORADO112024
Dixie NfUTAH112024
VernalUTAH112016
La Sal 3UTAH102024
Logan CanyonUTAH102019
PinonCOLORADO92022
Mt. TaylorNEW-MEXICO92012
BeckUTAH91986

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.