BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Clark's Nutcracker In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Clark's Nutcracker in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 348% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+348%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
142Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Clark's Nutcracker has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 348% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Clark's Nutcracker In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Clark's Nutcracker in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.2–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Clark's Nutcracker in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.2–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.21.13.2
20272.21.13.2
20282.21.23.3
20292.21.23.3
20302.31.23.3

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Clark's Nutcracker in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gribbles PrkCOLORADO482025
Piceance BasinCOLORADO382004
Moon PassCOLORADO192025
Mount EvansCOLORADO192024
Pinos CreekCOLORADO181990
GuffeyCOLORADO152025
NuclaCOLORADO152024
DinosaurCOLORADO142019
Fox CreekCOLORADO112025
Owl Creek PassCOLORADO112024
VernalUTAH112016
BufordWYOMING112025
FerronUTAH102025
La Sal 3UTAH102024
Logan CanyonUTAH102019
Mt. TaylorNEW-MEXICO92012
BeckUTAH91986
Heber Mtn.UTAH92025
Guanella PasCOLORADO82024
ComoCOLORADO82025
PowderhornCOLORADO82025
South ForkCOLORADO82025
Fish Lake NfUTAH82025
Trail Ridge RoadCOLORADO72014
SummitvilleCOLORADO62025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.