BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Clark's Nutcracker In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

Clark's Nutcracker in Badlands and Prairies has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

-79%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Clark's Nutcracker has collapsed in Badlands and Prairies: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

Clark's Nutcracker In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Clark's Nutcracker in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±73.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Clark's Nutcracker in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19782029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.060.000.33
20260.050.000.33
20270.050.000.32
20280.050.000.32
20290.040.000.32

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Clark's Nutcracker in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Two DotMONTANA52024
ShawmutMONTANA52006
Reed PointMONTANA42017
Pleasant ValSOUTH-DAKOTA42022
Hill CitySOUTH-DAKOTA32009
JordanMONTANA22016
HazelrodtSOUTH-DAKOTA22019
Lightning CrSOUTH-DAKOTA22015
LeroyMONTANA12019
FlatwillowMONTANA12006
Maynard CouleeMONTANA12023
Bull Mtn.MONTANA12016
NorbeckSOUTH-DAKOTA11995
Wind Cave NpSOUTH-DAKOTA12005
MayoworthWYOMING11982
LuskWYOMING12007
BucknumWYOMING12018
Moskee 2WYOMING12007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.