BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Clark's Nutcracker In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

Clark's Nutcracker in Sierra Madre Occidental has held roughly steady: up 7% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+7%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Clark's Nutcracker in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Clark's Nutcracker in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±95.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Clark's Nutcracker in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.160.000.65
20250.150.000.64
20260.140.000.64
20270.140.000.63
20280.130.000.62

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Clark's Nutcracker in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MaineARIZONA71994
BlueARIZONA61991
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO61997
SprucedaleARIZONA52021
PortalARIZONA51997
WilliamsARIZONA32001
ReserveNEW-MEXICO32022
FlagstaffARIZONA12021
Mormon LakeARIZONA11969
Forest LakesARIZONA11995
AlpineARIZONA12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.