BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Clark's Nutcracker In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinForest birds

Clark's Nutcracker in Great Basin has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-52%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Clark's Nutcracker has fallen sharply in Great Basin: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Clark's Nutcracker In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Clark's Nutcracker in Great Basin is projected to rise about 185% by 2030 — from 0.12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.00–0.74). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+185%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.33Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±92.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Clark's Nutcracker in Great Basin is projected to rise about 185% by 2030 — from 0.12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.00–0.74). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.340.000.74
20270.330.000.74
20280.330.000.74
20290.330.000.74
20300.330.000.74

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Clark's Nutcracker in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Barnes ValOREGON111985
Dell SpringOREGON91990
Kyle CanyonIDAHO81987
TwispWASHINGTON82019
WinthropWASHINGTON82021
AustinNEVADA52018
ChinchaloOREGON52025
ZumwaltOREGON52003
NighthawkWASHINGTON52023
BentonCALIFORNIA42024
Fall River MillsCALIFORNIA42006
SquirrelIDAHO42013
JosephOREGON41985
Hardware RanchUTAH42014
BridgeportCALIFORNIA31977
Medicine Mtn.CALIFORNIA32015
AlmoIDAHO32018
BlyOREGON31995
HyrumUTAH31975
BerylUTAH32011
NewcastleUTAH32011
Lake ChelanWASHINGTON32009
E. Mt. AdamsWASHINGTON32006
Big PineCALIFORNIA21999
BodieCALIFORNIA22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.