BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Clark's Nutcracker In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGeneralists

Clark's Nutcracker in Great Basin has declined: down 33% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-33%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Clark's Nutcracker in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Clark's Nutcracker In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Clark's Nutcracker in Great Basin is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.00–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+33%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.35Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Clark's Nutcracker in Great Basin is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.00–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.350.000.76
20260.350.000.76
20270.350.000.76
20280.350.000.76
20290.350.000.76

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Clark's Nutcracker in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SistersOREGON132024
Barnes ValOREGON111985
Dell SpringOREGON91990
Picture FlatOREGON92021
Kyle CanyonIDAHO81987
TwispWASHINGTON82019
WinthropWASHINGTON82021
ChinchaloOREGON62022
AustinNEVADA52018
PauninaOREGON52013
ZumwaltOREGON52003
NighthawkWASHINGTON52023
BentonCALIFORNIA42024
Fall River MillsCALIFORNIA42006
SquirrelIDAHO42013
JosephOREGON41985
Bald Mtn.OREGON42024
Hardware RanchUTAH42014
BridgeportCALIFORNIA31977
Medicine Mtn.CALIFORNIA32015
AlmoIDAHO32018
BlyOREGON31995
Bly 2OREGON32024
HyrumUTAH31975
BerylUTAH32011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.