BirdAnalyst
Species · Wisconsin · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in Wisconsin

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in Wisconsin has held roughly steady: down 4% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-4%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in WisconsinNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Wisconsin. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Wisconsin

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Wisconsin is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 0.49 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.61 (95% range 0.04–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.61Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±77.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Wisconsin is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 0.49 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.61 (95% range 0.04–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.630.061.2
20260.630.061.2
20270.620.051.2
20280.610.041.2
20290.610.041.2

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Wisconsin

Routes recording American Kestrel in Wisconsin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Iron River520241967
Annaton420232000
Bayfield320241967
Exeland320241968
Omro320011967
Mount Horeb319881975
Kiel320221998
Minong220071972
Hudson220241966
Gilman220191966
Merrill220211966
Hollister220171973
Elderon220241966
Viroqua220241979
Rolling Grnd220231979
Fall River220241966
Eden220231967
Hazel Green220241967
Wiota220241966
Bashaw220242004
Meridean220191998
Holland220221998
Chaffey120221967
Grand View120081974
Shanagolden119691969

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.