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Species · Alabama · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Kestrel Population Trend in Alabama

All statesBirds of prey

American Kestrel in Alabama has declined: down 26% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-26%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Alabama. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Alabama is projected to fall about 53% by 2030 — from 0.23 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±164.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-53%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±164.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Alabama is projected to fall about 53% by 2030 — from 0.23 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±164.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.110.000.23
20270.110.000.23
20280.110.000.23
20290.110.000.23
20300.110.000.23

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording American Kestrel in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wheeler Dam720251993
Lakeview520252001
Beatrice220161997
Elkmont220231990
Carter Grove220072002
Brooksville220191991
St Florian120191982
Hillsboro119961983
Trade120171968
Summitt119771970
Valhermoso Spgs120101969
Swaim120191980
Dawson119901966
Millerville119701970
Mt Olive119971966
Howard119841984
Maytown119921991
Liberty119821966
Riderwood120042004
Harrell120071972
Billingsley119781978
Wallsboro119751975
Cottonton119801980
Grangeburg119811967
Brantley119761976

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.