BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in Alabama

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in Alabama has fallen sharply: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-55%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Kestrel has fallen sharply in Alabama: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Alabama is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±147.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±147.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Alabama is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±147.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.100.000.21
20260.100.000.21
20270.100.000.21
20280.100.000.21
20290.100.000.21

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording American Kestrel in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Beatrice220161997
Elkmont220231990
Carter Grove220072002
Brooksville220191991
St Florian120191982
Hillsboro119961983
Trade120171968
Summitt119771970
Valhermoso Spgs120101969
Swaim120191980
Dawson119901966
Millerville119701970
Mt Olive119971966
Howard119841984
Maytown119921991
Liberty119821966
Riderwood120042004
Harrell120071972
Billingsley119781978
Wallsboro119751975
Cottonton119801980
Grangeburg119811967
Brantley119761976
Latham119721972
Millry120042004

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.