BirdAnalyst
Species · Wyoming · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in Wyoming

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in Wyoming has increased: up 41% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+41%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in WyomingNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Wyoming. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Wyoming

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Wyoming is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.26–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.26–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Wyoming is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.26–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.292.2
20261.30.282.2
20271.30.272.2
20281.20.272.2
20291.20.262.2

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Wyoming

Routes recording American Kestrel in Wyoming.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Arvada2020241982
Lysite1120241989
Big Sandy1120221987
Lingle1120241980
Ryan Park919931993
Schoonover820241985
Newcastle720241988
Mtn View720241981
Clarkelen619771977
Buford620241974
Recluse620241981
Cody520241989
Leo520161982
Rozet520231991
Yoder420241980
Lovell420191992
Meeteetse420241991
Sussex420241991
Bucknum420241993
Carter 2420242017
Natrona319921969
Redbird319891968
Ervay320241973
Savery319891989
Hunter Peak320101982

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.