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Species · Wyoming · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Kestrel Population Trend in Wyoming

All statesBirds of prey

American Kestrel in Wyoming has increased: up 43% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+43%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
130Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in WyomingNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Wyoming. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Wyoming

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Wyoming is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.26–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.26–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Wyoming is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.26–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.292.2
20271.30.282.2
20281.20.282.2
20291.20.272.2
20301.20.262.2

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Wyoming

Routes recording American Kestrel in Wyoming.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lysite1120241989
Lingle1120241980
Ryan Park919931993
Leo820251982
Lusk820251982
Cody620251989
Clarkelen619771977
Sussex620251991
Mtn View620251981
Rozet620251991
Meeteetse520251991
Gebo520251981
Buford420251974
Yoder420251980
Lovell420251992
Upton420251989
Ethete420251991
Thunder Basin420252011
Bucknum420241993
Dubois320251971
Natrona319921969
Redbird319891968
Ervay320251973
Savery319891989
Hunter Peak320101982

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.