BirdAnalyst
Species · Maine · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in Maine

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in Maine has collapsed: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-80%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in MaineNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Kestrel has collapsed in Maine: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Maine

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Maine is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±192%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±192%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Maine is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±192%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.55
20260.000.000.55
20270.000.000.55
20280.000.000.55
20290.000.000.55

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Maine

Routes recording American Kestrel in Maine.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wilson Mills519931983
South Arm319901978
Cape Neddick219981972
Otisfield Gr220021966
East Troy220191976
Freedom219941978
Cambridge220061967
Forest Sta220001966
Ft Fairfield219981993
St David220041982
Searsport220242006
Heron Lake219901986
Westbrook120141980
Biddeford119941978
Kittery Pt119751967
Newcastle119851972
Bethel120032003
Turner120021972
Greenwood120231984
Reeds120241983
Hartford120221975
Bowdoin Ctr120211972
Manchester119821973
Warren119881977
Harmony120231967

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.