BirdAnalyst
Species · Maine · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in Maine

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in Maine has collapsed: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-80%Since 1968
60Routes In State
58Years

Notable American Kestrel Trends in Maine

long arc declinecomputed index

American Kestrel has collapsed in Maine: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Maine

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Maine is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±192%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.5595% range
±192%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.000.000.55
20260.000.000.55
20270.000.000.55
20280.000.000.55
20290.000.000.55

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Maine

Routes recording American Kestrel in Maine.
Wilson Mills519931983
South Arm319901978
Cape Neddick219981972
Otisfield Gr220021966
East Troy220191976
Freedom219941978
Cambridge220061967
Forest Sta220001966
Ft Fairfield219981993
St David220041982
Searsport220242006
Heron Lake219901986
Westbrook120141980
Biddeford119941978
Kittery Pt119751967
Newcastle119851972
Bethel120032003
Turner120021972
Greenwood120231984
Reeds120241983
Hartford120221975
Bowdoin Ctr120211972
Manchester119821973
Warren119881977
Harmony120231967

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.