BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Kestrel Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesBirds of prey

American Kestrel in Nebraska has increased: up 34% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+34%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Nebraska. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Nebraska is projected to rise about 63% by 2030 — from 0.75 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.31–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±150.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+63%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.31–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±150.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Nebraska is projected to rise about 63% by 2030 — from 0.75 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.31–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±150.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.20.292.1
20271.20.292.1
20281.20.302.1
20291.20.312.1
20301.20.312.1

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording American Kestrel in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bartlett819761968
Arthur720251996
Chambers720252025
Bartley420181967
Ponca420242024
Pine Ridge420251999
Hendley420252018
Irvington320091972
Surprise320162004
Paxton320161968
Dalton320251971
Thurston320251967
Oglala Nat. Grass.320231999
Berwyn320101994
Julian220171983
Stratton220251975
Agate220011974
Table220151979
Murray Lake220241987
Berea220171980
Crawford220251980
Red Cloud220232023
Murdock220252018
Gretna 2220252024
Wheeler Co220251978

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.