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Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in Nebraska has edged up: up 16% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+16%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Nebraska. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Nebraska is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.34–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±165.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.34–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±165.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Nebraska is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.34–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±165.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.312.1
20261.20.322.1
20271.20.332.1
20281.20.332.2
20291.30.342.2

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording American Kestrel in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pine Ridge1520241999
Bartlett819761968
Arthur620241996
Crawford520241980
Bartley420181967
Ponca420242024
Irvington320091972
Surprise320162004
Paxton320161968
Dalton320241971
Brady320241990
Oglala Nat. Grass.320231999
Wheeler Co320241978
Berwyn320101994
Julian220171983
Stratton220241975
Sparta220191969
Agate220011974
Table220151979
Murray Lake220241987
Berea220171980
Crookston220242023
Red Cloud220232023
Johnson120231971
Liberty120031968

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.