BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Kestrel Population Trend in Texas

All statesBirds of prey

American Kestrel in Texas has increased: up 45% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+45%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
120Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Texas. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Texas is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 0.19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.10–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–0.3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±73.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Texas is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 0.19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.10–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.230.090.37
20270.230.090.37
20280.230.100.38
20290.240.100.38
20300.240.100.38

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording American Kestrel in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Laredo520152002
Twichell520251996
Rankin419751975
Hackberry420241980
Dougherty420251995
Encinal320021976
Weinert319941972
Cornudas320181968
Plains320231978
Beaver Creek320222007
Plains320171995
Cavasara Cr.320092009
Quitman Canyon 2320242015
Vanderbilt219741974
Catarina220071989
Lockhart219821973
New Waverly220161987
Dike220141970
Henrietta220051994
Lamesa220252006
Clarendon220241968
Slaughter220211977
Pantex220241976
Waka220221979
El Sauz219981998

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.