BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in Oklahoma has edged down: down 17% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-17%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Oklahoma. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 0.76 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.18–0.95). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.56Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.18–0.9595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 0.76 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.18–0.95). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.560.170.95
20260.560.170.95
20270.560.170.95
20280.560.170.95
20290.560.180.95

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording American Kestrel in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wichita Mtns East820222013
Hardesty420241970
Collinsville320211970
Rosston320171969
Felt320241968
Clear Lake320241992
Phroso220171993
Randlett219931991
Reed220191968
Indianola220242006
Holdenville219681967
Beggs220231972
Eagle City219861968
Grimes220231967
Erick220241969
Peoria220231967
Bartlesville220221967
Douglas220211967
Tegarden220101967
Pocola220161995
Heyburn220192016
Keetonville220141993
Woodward220241992
Hooker220241996
Duncan220061993

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.