BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in Nevada

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in Nevada has held roughly steady: up 6% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+6%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Nevada. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Nevada is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±120.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±120.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Nevada is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±120.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.002.8
20261.40.002.8
20271.40.002.8
20281.40.002.8
20291.40.002.8

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording American Kestrel in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Walker Can1120241968
Carson River1020052001
Nixon920241973
Mizpah720241991
Toiyabe Nf720241987
Ruby Valley620011997
Ranchogrande520241990
Gardnerville520121992
Calico Spr419741970
Majors Place420241973
Rye Patch319871970
Cortez320241968
Austin320142013
Bald Mtn.320171992
Chimney Res.320232007
Dinner Sta219931968
Meadow Vally220011996
Minerva220241989
Hiko220231968
Comins Lake220152005
Humboldt Nf220181993
Ash Meadows220142009
Mill City220192016
Fallon220241992
Vya119691969

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.