BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Kestrel Population Trend in Nevada

All statesBirds of prey

American Kestrel in Nevada has increased: up 27% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+27%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Nevada. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Nevada is projected to rise about 16% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±110.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±110.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Nevada is projected to rise about 16% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±110.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.002.8
20271.30.002.8
20281.30.002.8
20291.30.002.8
20301.30.002.8

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording American Kestrel in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Walker Can1120241968
Carson River1020052001
Mizpah720241991
Toiyabe Nf720241987
Caliente720251988
Ruby Valley620011997
Ranchogrande520241990
Gardnerville520121992
Calico Spr419741970
Nixon420251973
Rye Patch319871970
Cortez320241968
Austin320142013
Chimney Res.320232007
Piute Mdws220252005
Dinner Sta219931968
Meadow Vally220251996
Minerva220241989
Hiko220251968
Comins Lake220152005
Humboldt Nf220181993
Mill City220192016
Bald Mtn.220251992
Vya119691969
Midas120121974

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.