BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesGeneralists

American Kestrel in Arkansas has fallen sharply: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-70%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Kestrel Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Kestrel has fallen sharply in Arkansas: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Kestrel Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.000.30
20260.080.000.30
20270.070.000.29
20280.070.000.29
20290.070.000.29

American Kestrel Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording American Kestrel in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Old Milo419951969
Harrisburg320041981
Centerton320222010
Saffell220142000
Compton219891973
Havana220212021
Eudora119701967
Ramsey119741969
Locust Bayou120161972
Stamps119991972
Hope119911991
Ozark Nf120132013
Hughes119751975
West Tyler119831983
Crows119691969
Poyen119781978
Hollywood120071972
Blakely119711971
Whitton119861986
Rupert120192015
Stark120231967
Coal Hill120222007
Massard120151971
Maynard120211991
Zion120242023

American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.