Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
American Kestrel Population Trend in Arkansas
American Kestrel in Arkansas has fallen sharply: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1969.
-70%Since 1969
33Routes In State
54Years
Notable American Kestrel Trends in Arkansas
long arc declinecomputed index
American Kestrel has fallen sharply in Arkansas: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1969.
American Kestrel Population Forecast in Arkansas
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-1%Change by 2029
0.07Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.2995% range
±43%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| 2026 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| 2027 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| 2028 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| 2029 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
American Kestrel Survey Routes in Arkansas
| Old Milo | 4 | 1995 | 1969 |
| Harrisburg | 3 | 2004 | 1981 |
| Centerton | 3 | 2022 | 2010 |
| Saffell | 2 | 2014 | 2000 |
| Compton | 2 | 1989 | 1973 |
| Havana | 2 | 2021 | 2021 |
| Eudora | 1 | 1970 | 1967 |
| Ramsey | 1 | 1974 | 1969 |
| Locust Bayou | 1 | 2016 | 1972 |
| Stamps | 1 | 1999 | 1972 |
| Hope | 1 | 1991 | 1991 |
| Ozark Nf | 1 | 2013 | 2013 |
| Hughes | 1 | 1975 | 1975 |
| West Tyler | 1 | 1983 | 1983 |
| Crows | 1 | 1969 | 1969 |
| Poyen | 1 | 1978 | 1978 |
| Hollywood | 1 | 2007 | 1972 |
| Blakely | 1 | 1971 | 1971 |
| Whitton | 1 | 1986 | 1986 |
| Rupert | 1 | 2019 | 2015 |
| Stark | 1 | 2023 | 1967 |
| Coal Hill | 1 | 2022 | 2007 |
| Massard | 1 | 2015 | 1971 |
| Maynard | 1 | 2021 | 1991 |
| Zion | 1 | 2024 | 2023 |
American Kestrel Population Trend in Other States
alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.